Episode
68

Climate Modelling & Application in Agriculture – with AAFC

January 18, 2023
|
Duration:
1794003
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In This Episode:

Join energy coaches David Arkell and John Pooley with guests from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Kirsten Hannam and Elizabeth Houghton on an episode all about climate modelling. This episode features what climate modelling is, why it’s important to the agriculture industry, challenges with application, and more. Presentation by AAFC research scientist Kirsten Hannam © His Majesty the King 2022, licensed under CC-BY-NC 4.0. Elizabeth’s research was supported by the Canadian Agricultural Partnership, a federal-provincial-territorial initiative, and delivered by the Investment Agriculture Foundation of BC.

Highlights

  • Understanding Climate Models in Agriculture: Climate models provide long-term predictions of climate impacts on agriculture, helping farmers adapt to changes in crop viability, pest cycles, and water requirements.
  • Types of Climate Models: Two primary types of models are utilized:
    • Global Circulation Models (GCMs): Focus on physical climate processes.
    • Earth Systems Models: Incorporate chemical and biological processes for more comprehensive predictions.
  • Crop Suitability and Cold Hardiness: In British Columbia, climate models assist cherry growers in identifying planting areas with suitable cold tolerance, enabling expansion into regions previously unsuitable for cultivation.
  • Challenges with Extreme Weather Prediction: Predicting extreme events like heat waves or sudden temperature changes is challenging due to data limitations, particularly in regions with complex topography, such as the Okanagan Valley.
  • Data and Real-Time Decision Support: Advanced modeling provides growers with actionable insights for decisions on frost protection, irrigation, and crop variety selection, improving resilience against climate impacts.

    • Key Insights

  • Predictive Power for Long-Term Planning: Climate models provide farmers with strategic tools to plan crop choices and planting locations, enabling adaptation to anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation.
  • Importance of Data Accuracy: Localized weather and climate data are essential for effective modeling, particularly in regions like British Columbia, where topography heavily influences climate conditions.
  • Adaptation and Crop Suitability: Climate models help growers assess the suitability of certain crops, promoting resilient agricultural systems by guiding planting decisions in new or marginal areas.
  • Short-Term Decision-Making: Models also assist with real-time decisions, such as frost protection and irrigation, helping reduce losses from immediate weather risks.
  • Collaboration in Climate Science: The development and application of climate models rely on collaboration between scientists, mathematicians, and local growers, combining expertise to foster more resilient farming practices.
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